Chris Wilder believes it’s five from the top six for automatic promotion.
The U’s boss says it’s hard to see anyone outside the current top six challenging for the title.
Cambridge are one of the ones outside that top group who could come strong, though their new manager Martin Ling has dampened expectation about success this season by talking about a three-year plan.
The top six of Oxford, Stevenage, Kettering, Mansfield, Luton and York look to be the most formidable, partly because they are near-invincible in front of their own fans.
Between them, those six have lost only three games at home, and on each occasion it was to a top-eight team.
Kettering’s defeat came against AFC Wimbledon, Mansfield’s against Stevenage, and Luton’s also came against Stevenage.
Oxford, Stevenage and York are unbeaten at home.
League leaders Oxford have the best record (4-2-1) against top-eight sides.
Luton Town (5-0-1) and Oxford United (3-1-0) have the best records against teams in the middle eight of the table.
And Kettering have the best record (5-0-0) against the bottom-eight teams.
Interestingly, all four of Stevenage’s games against their promotion rivals have been away, so every one of those clubs still have to visit Broadhall Way Stadium.
A warning to the U’s ahead of tomorrow’s game at the Kassam Stadium, is that visitors Altrincham have already managed a draw at Stevenage.
Only once has a top-eight side lost to a bottom-eight team – when York were controversially beaten 1-0 at Salisbury who, in any case, are in a slightly false position after having ten points deducted at the start of the season for going into administration.
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