Oxfordshire's long trip north ended in disappointment after a four-wicket defeat in Cumberland on Sunday.
It leaves Ian Hawtin's men having to beat Bedfordshire at Challow in a fortnight, while hoping that other results go their way in order to qualify for the latter stages.
Things looked so promising for Oxfordshire after they were asked to bat first.
Chris Sandbach and Jamie Hewitt were in complete control against the hosts' openers, and shared a first-wicket partnership of 87.
At 145-1, Oxon were in a good position, but a succession of wickets at regular intervals checked their progress.
Their total of 218-5 off 50 overs looked a competitive one on a wicket with plenty of bounce, although they felt it may be 20 runs short.
And they were proved right.
Jack Brooks took two quick wickets to reduce Cumberland to 28-2, before veteran Keith Arnold really turned the screw.
Arnold's first seven overs went for just eight runs, and with few runs coming from the other end, it looked as though Cumberland were in trouble at 65-2 off 25 overs.
Needing to score at more than a run a ball for the final 25 overs, they were forced to go on the attack - and it worked.
Luke Ryan saw one over go for 20 runs, and that put the home side in pole position.
However, the match was still in the balance with five overs to go, when Scott Kirwin set about Jamie Noble and smashed 19 off one over.
That all but sealed victory, and it was left to Kirwin and Gary Pratt, who batted well for an unbeaten 62, to see them home with 20 balls remaining.
Oxfordshire have now won one, lost one and had one game abandoned - meaning that nothing less than victory will do in their last match in two weeks' time.
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