OXFORD United's 2-1 defeat to Sunderland on Saturday was all too familiar.
The U’s were the better side for large parts of the contest but could not take advantage, and the Black Cats capitalised to win late on.
Over the last two seasons, United have struggled to pick up results against their Sky Bet League One promotion rivals.
Last term, the U's claimed 19 points from 22 games against the rest of the top half and still reached the play-offs.
They are on a similar tally this time around, although it must be said the standard in League One has gone up a notch.
The top 11 sides in the division have broken away from the rest, with everyone from Portsmouth upwards looking capable of challenging for the play-offs at some point this season.
Look at those teams’ results against each other and a split emerges – and the U’s find themselves on the wrong side.
United have gained 18 points from 18 games against the rest of the top 11, with matches against MK Dons and Rotherham United to come next week.
The U’s will feel they deserved more from some of those matches, but it is worth remembering that they scored late in their wins over Sheffield Wednesday (twice), MK Dons and Portsmouth.
United's average of one point per game is not awful but certainly could be better.
The other teams immediately outside the play-off places – Wycombe Wanderers, Ipswich Town, Bolton Wanderers and Portsmouth – have a similar record.
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That is noticeably worse than the current top six, who have claimed between 1.41 and 1.93 points per game against the sides around them.
Rotherham United have the best record against the rest of the promotion contenders, while Sunderland boast the highest points tally with 33.
It is interesting that league leaders Wigan Athletic are only sixth in the ‘top 11 table’, with 1.41 points per game, but they are still well ahead of the next team, Ipswich.
Several clubs in the top 11 still have to play each other, so the split could grow or decrease in the final three weeks of the season.
But it shows how your record against the teams around you can make the difference in a fierce promotion race.
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