The Oxford Times’s lead story this week centres on potential changes to the county’s Parliamentary constituencies.
On the face of it the proposed changes are very minor. When one compares what is likely to happen here with what is being suggested in other parts of the country — cabinet members’ seats disappearing or being cut in half — it seems to be very much a case of ‘carry on as you are’.
The number of seats in the county is to remain unchanged — and two of the six constituencies are to remain completely untouched.
As for the other four, well, only a little bit of shifting around is suggested. And what could possibly happen if one were to move a single city ward — Carfax, say — from one seat to another? And as for moving Radley from the Oxford West and Abingdon seat to Henley? Granted, it might make absolutely no sense geographically, but it is a pretty small place and the effect of shunting it out of Tory MP Nicola Blackwood’s constituency into that of her Conservative colleague Dr John Howell would surely be negligible.
Not so. At least that is the view of some of the brightest minds in the country. One, Oxford University professor of politics, Iain McLean, told this paper: “On the whole, these changes may be received as good news for the Liberal Democrats.”
That is because he believes moving Carfax to the proposed Abingdon and Oxford North from Oxford East (bizarrely to be renamed Oxford despite the fact that the city centre would not be part of it) would boost Lib Dem hopes of removing Miss Blackwood.
The Carfax ward has a large student population and shifting it into the new Abingdon and Oxford North constituency would be welcomed by Lib Dems, who traditionally pick up a high share of student votes.
Assuming that students have forgiven the Lib Dems for their part in the introduction of higher tuition fees, this could be bad news for Miss Blackwood at the next election.
To compound matters, Miss Blackwood will be losing the village of Radley — traditionally a Tory area — to Dr Howell and his ultra-safe Henley seat.
Oxford West and Abingdon was won from the Lib Dems and Dr Evan Harris at the last election by just 176 votes. Dr Harris must be licking his lips at the prospect of taking on Miss Blackwood at the next election.
That is assuming that he will stand. When we asked him whether he would be putting his name forward he simply hung up the phone. Was he in a hurry to send his candidate application form off to Lib Dem HQ?
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