It is a nonsense to suggest that New Zealand under-achieve at rugby World Cups.
It is realistic to assume that New Zealand, Australia, South Africa, France and England are equally talented and so equally likely to win a World Cup (the probabilities of success are the same for each nation).
Therefore, we would expect New Zealand, or any of the ‘Big Five’ for that matter, to be crowned World Champions once in every five tournaments.
In fact, New Zealand have won one out of the six tournaments played.
South Africa’s record is quite remarkable (two wins in four tournaments) while France are the genuine under-achievers (no success, despite two final appearances).
The same argument can be trotted out in football when I groan loudly on hearing that England are consistent under-achievers.
Let us realistically assume that the following nations are equally good at football – Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay, Germany, Holland, France, Spain, Italy, England, Portugal.
Therefore, we would expect England to be crowned ‘champions’ once in every 10 tournaments which is not far off the reality.
So, England fans, if England fail in New Zealand just remember the laws of probability – it’s not time yet.
Ian Roblin, address supplied
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