OXFORD will face up to three weeks of traffic chaos after the new transport strategy goes into action - then experience a sharp improvement, one transport expert has predicted.

Prof Phillip Goodwin, Professor of Transport Policy at University College, London, and former Reader in transport studies at Oxford University, said: "After road closures, if I have heard transport planners say 'The traffic has simply disappeared and we don't know where it has gone' once, I've heard it 20 times.

"There will be a period of uncertainty and intermittent traffic chaos, lasting between three days and three weeks. After that I think traffic conditions will be somewhat better than the estimates."

Prof Goodwin was giving evidence at the public inquiry into OTS at Oxford Town Hall.

He said there had been a significant change in transport thinking since the late 1980s and it was no longer thought that the best way to reduce congestion was to build more roads.

He praised Oxford's balanced transport policy - in place for the last 33 years - which he said had been successful in restricting traffic growth in the city centre.

But, he said: "It is now time - some people argue that it is very, very long past time - when further traffic restrictions have to be made."

Studies in other countries and cities have shown that traffic restrictions and pedestrianisation had led to better trade for shops and businesses in central areas.

Often, the people who had opposed pedestrianisation most strongly ended up supporting it, he added.

The professor, who is taking part in a five-year study of transport policy in Oxford funded by European Union, called for a return to attractive streets where children could walk or cycle safely to school. He also urged shops and supermarkets to return to the days of home delivery.

"I have to give credit to the Co-op in Oxford for doing this for years. I always used to get my shopping that way - maybe because they never got round to abolishing it," he said.

Barbara Chadwick, a trustee of the Oxfordshire Council of Disabled People, said Prof Goodwin had not given enough thought to the effect of OTS on disabled drivers.

He argued that many disabled people, for example bus users, could be expected to benefit from OTS.

"Overall the changes would be for the benefit of all disabled travellers," he said.

The professor said town centre changes would not necessarily make traffic conditions in other parts of Oxford better and those would have to be tackled separately. But, he added, other areas were outside the scope of the present inquiry.

He said: "This is not the final solution to Oxford's traffic problems but it is the right direction. It is essential to reduce traffic in the centre, in order to enhance air quality, economic efficiency, commercial vitality, and the importance of Oxford as a historic city, and to restore the ability to stroll with pleasure." A SCHEME to ban traffic from the centre of Oxford would reduce pollution and boost trade, a public inquiry heard.

Peter Mann, a principal planner with Oxford City Council, told the hearing on the Oxford Transport Strategy yesterday that a study in York showed there was an increase in pedestrians which led to more sales in the shops.

He also said that research in different cities which had been pedestrianised revealed initial opposition from traders but once the scheme was implemented there was enthusiastic support.

Mr Mann said: "Some retailers are concerned that the central area proposals will lead to inconvenient access, additional storage or delivery costs and loss of passing trade.

"It is not intended to put businesses in jeopardy through these proposals but to see the city centre thrive commercially through signif- icant environmental improvements."

Oxfordshire County Council and the city council had offered changes to the original plans to allow access to Turl Street, Market Street and Broad Street for traders in the Covered Market.

The strongest support had come from national retailers such as Boots, W H Smith, Allders, Sainsbury and Marks & Spencer.

Mr Mann said: "These major companies have experience of similar measures elsewhere and would not be supporting these proposals if there was any likelihood of a consequent loss of trade. I conclude therefore that the OTS will have a beneficial effect on the retail and commercial vitality of Oxford city centre."

Barrister Adrian Trevelyn-Thomas, representing the two councils, told the hearing earlier that Oxford was one of the few historic English towns which continues to allow large volumes of traffic into its centre.

Tony Payne, the city council's principal environmental health officer, said that the main objective of the OTS was to improve the environment in central Oxford.

He said: "The daytime closure of High Street to through traffic and the removal of buses from Cornmarket Street will provide an overall improvement in air quality in central Oxford."

The councils also see the OTS as an opportunity to improve access for the disabled and reduce accidents in the High Street - which has the worst accident record of any road in Oxford.

Mr Mann said: "The proposals increase by up to three times the formal, protected parking spaces for orange badge holders in the city centre and provide a spread of parking around the shopping streets.

"On-street parking capacity for orange badge holders will remain in excess of 300 under the proposals. Given that the maximum demand is around 70, the authorities are satisfied that there will be no detriment to disabled drivers."

Mike Rant, a group engineer with Oxfordshire County Council, said: "For much of the time the existing conditions in Cornmarket Street for both pedestrians and buses have become quite unacceptable . . .

"The measures . . . would lead to very significant benefits for pedestrians, cyclists and buses using the city centre roads and a reduction in overall levels of road accidents, noise and pollution."

The inquiry, which is expected to last three weeks, continues. CLEAN

DREAM Inquiry peers into a traffic-free future for Oxford By STEPHANIE McKEOWN THE REALITY: Traffic congestion in Oxford High Street, near Carfax

Converted for the new archive on 30 June 2000. Some images and formatting may have been lost in the conversion.