Oxford needs to build 17,000 new affordable homes in the next 10 years to keep up with demand, warns a new report. The city council plans just 380 a year.
The Housing Requirement study surveyed 17 towns and cities in the south east and found Oxford was in the worst position. It is also way behind cities like Birmingham, Liverpool and Leicester in meeting housing need.
Affordable homes include starter homes suitable for first-time buyers and social housing.
City council Labour leader Alex Hollingsworth has warned of a crisis that could "eventually lock hard-working families out of Oxford".
Oxford City Council's new Local Plan legislates for 3,800 houses to be built within the next 10 years -- more than 13,000 short of the demand, according to the study by Fordham Research, whose findings are accepted by the Government as the basis for national policy.
The study concluded: "There is limited scope for Oxford's need to be met by initiatives other than social rented housing -- shared ownership accommodation appearing to be largely irrelevant other than for one-bedroom accommodation."
The study comes the day after Oxfordshire County Council threw out plans to build 3,000 new homes on greenbelt land just south of Oxford's Grenoble Road.
Mr Hollingsworth said: "The fact that Oxford needs more affordable homes is not new, but for the first time we can actually quantify exactly how many new houses we will need.
"As a council, we are doing everything we can to boost affordable housing by developing brownfield sites and asking developers to allocate 50 per cent of new homes for social housing.
"But we must face the reality that this will not be enough."
Val Smith, the city council's executive member for housing, said more than £18m would be invested during the next two years to provide 450 new affordable and key worker homes in Oxford, thanks to a grant from the South East Regional Housing Board.
There will be 22 new homes at Barton on the site of the old Beckley View sheltered housing block. And between 80 and 100 new homes are planned for the site of the closed Temple Cowley Middle School.
She said: "Delivering more affordable homes for families in Oxford is a top priority.
"Our decision to expand our housing development team has paid off."
But constant demand for homes within the Oxford ring road will always outstrip supply, according to one leading estate agent.
Sidney Sidhu, an estate agent of 10 years and manager of the Headington branch of Chancellors, said: "Years ago, people would save for years in order to get their foot on the property ladder, but now more people are wanting something immediately.
"Oxford is running out of space within the ring road, and from my experience, local authorities don't look at the situation from people's point of view. They are not forward thinking.
"The demand at the moment is outstripping supply and the situation is not likely to change as people traditionally do not want new development on their doorstep."
Loyd Kennedy, branch manager of Andrews Estate Agents in Oxford's High Street, added: "Oxford clearly has a shortage of properties, especially of the one and two-bedroom variety. As the city grows, this shortage only becomes more chronic.
"Many cheaper properties that do come on to the market are snapped up by investment buyers, so even the few affordable properties at the lower end don't stay on the market long enough for first-time buyers to have a chance to properly consider their biggest single investment."
In partnership with local housing associations, the city council will use the £18.2m to build approximately 300 new homes for families on the council waiting-list and 156 for key workers.
The city council also announced this week that it has become one of the first local authorities in the country to hit a Government target of having no families with children living in B&Bs.
However, more than 1,000 families are currently living in temporary homeless accommodation provided by the city council. This means that the city has the highest rate of homelessness outside of inner London.
Nick Yeeles, acting chief executive of Cherwell Family Housing Association, which has around 1,000 properties in Oxford, said: "Clearly problems lie in identifying the sites and opportunities, and the council needs to work corporately to provide as many affordable homes as possible.
"From our perspective, we want to see more affordable homes built to meet the obvious demand."
Mr Yeeles said the lack of such properties put pressure on the association to meet the council's waiting list.
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