Where have the noughties gone? One minute, we’re preparing to counter the impact of the Millennium Bug — remember the money wasted on that panic-inducing, non-event — the next, we’re becoming used to nationalised banks and, some might say, still wasting money by continuing to prop them up.
Things change, but nothing changes, as the stock market has demonstrated in spades, with some share prices duplicating growth last seen a decade ago.
Uncannily, the FTSE100 index has risen by more than 20 per cent over the past 12 months, with some of the most spectacular gains made since mid-September.
The market’s continued buoyancy is, not surprisingly, persuading more cautious investors to amend their attitude towards equities and look more favourably upon them, just as they did in 1999. There is, however, one subtle difference.
A decade ago — and I was as guilty as anyone else — the overwhelming focus of investors’ attention was technology.
We had, it seemed, entered a new age — a worldwide renaissance would be driven by companies capable of harnessing a wondrous tool known as the ‘Internet’ that would eliminate plague, hunger and misery forever, while simultaneously ensuring we all had Smart cars.
Millions of new equity investors bought into this dream and, for a while, actually banked some decent profits.
Permanent online connectivity would, we were told, solve the globe’s ills, so any enterprise smart enough to add ‘.com’ to its name and issue a half-baked prospectus requesting a few million dollars in pursuit of this unattainable dream had little difficulty raising working capital.
Yet when investors enquired about sales and profits a few months after the start-up enterprise had occupied its fancy offices and was turning over just about enough to fund the purchase of tea bags and coffee, they realised accounting terminology had expanded.
They were introduced to EBITDA — earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation, or, as one wag suggested, earnings before the nasty bits.
Then there was ‘burn rate’, the perfect accompaniment for technology companies with ‘negative cash flow’, ie loss-making, that powered through cash faster than they could ever possibly generate it.
With hindsight, it was inevitable that everything would end in tears, so what’s different ten years on?
It could be argued investors still occasionally display herd-like characteristics. How else do we explain the seemingly sudden penchant for commercial property, or corporate bond funds evident at various points during the past decade?
But despite this, most now take a more circumspect view of matters and appreciate the ‘get-rich-quick’ urge which drives speculative investment is more appropriate in a betting shop. Or investment banking.
Today, investors are significantly more inclined to diversify. The last ten years have been a form of investment apprenticeship for many, during which equities have performed worse than any other asset class.
Yet instead of prompting investors to jettison shares altogether, they realise that spreading risk is the most sensible option. Those who have been quick off the mark have profited from buying into firms well-placed to benefit from a recovery, such as retailers and oil companies.
But there is another tier of less economically sensitive enterprises and cash-generative stocks into which sensible investors are diversifying.
Instead of putting all of their eggs into the technology basket, as they did ten years ago, today’s smarter investor has a much broader equity portfolio — one well-positioned to weather the inevitable storms we will encounter during the next decade.
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