OXFORDSHIRE health bosses say they are preparing for the worst in the war against swine flu.

Despite a slowdown in the number of cases over recent weeks, public health and vaccine experts warned the county had to be ready for an upswing in infections and deaths over the winter – but not to panic.

At the annual general meeting of the Oxfordshire Primary Care Trust, public health director Dr Jonathan McWilliam said the county was well armed to handle any sudden rise in cases.

He said: “In the worst case people will get ill, people will die, like they do every year with ordinary seasonal flu, but it is important to keep it all in perspective.

“Experts agree this really is highly unlikely. We are well prepared for another outbreak.”

The PCT is preparing for almost one in three people to be infected by May, up to one in eight of workers to be absent and one per cent of the population to be hospitalised. It is also planning for it to kill one in 1,000 infected people.

NHS staff in Oxfordshire have been asked to think about how they can work with PCTs in other areas to manage the situation, should it arise. Administration staff have also been briefed on the possibility of abandoning their day-to-day duties and manning antiviral points to hand out Tamiflu medicine.

Dr Tom Porter, acting consultant in public health for Oxfordshire, said the PCT was making preparations in line with the Government’s latest guidelines.

He added: “These planning assumptions are not a prediction of the most likely situation, but rather a prediction of the ‘worst case’ scenario, to ensure that the health service can continue to provide high-quality care to Oxfordshire residents in any eventuality.”

Although the number of cases over the summer has been relatively small, Government health experts advised PCTs numbers could rise to hundreds of thousands per week by mid-October.

In Oxfordshire at the height of the last outbreak, collection points were handing out more than 500 doses of tamiflu per day.

On Wednesday that figure had dropped to 72.

Andrew Pollard, professor of Paediatric Infection and Immunity at Oxford University, said although it was possible the virus may ‘fizzle out’, people should expect the worst.

He said: “I think the most likely outcome we will have is a substantial flu season this year compared with the experience we had in the summer, but what we cannot predict is the severity.”