Coronavirus update from Oxfordshire's public health chief

Ansaf Azhar also warned that Oxfordshire's rate of infection is higher than the national average, possibly because of the county's more elderly population, and said there had been a spike in non-covid-19-related deaths, all of which makes it vital to stamp out the spread locally as soon as possible.

Speaking at a meeting of the county’s Health Improvement Partnership Board yesterday, Mr Azhar, the county’s director of public health, warned there still was a lot of uncertainty around local transmission.

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But he said the government’s plans to track and trace the virus would help to improve knowledge of local hotspots, and added this was vital to prevent an even more deadly second peak of the virus.

During the meeting, which was held online, Mr Azhar was asked by board member Dr Kiran Collision whether the R number – the rate at which coronavirus spreads in the community – was traceable at a local level.

Mr Azhar said the modelling of the R number was not reliable when it was localised, and while the likelihood of someone stepping out of their front door and catching coronavirus had drastically reduced, it was still very prevalent among Oxfordshire’s care homes and health workers.

He said: “What we need to focus on locally is to try and understand where the outbreaks are happening and act early.”

Anzaf Azhar

A map released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) this week showed the areas where coronavirus had been most deadly in Oxfordshire between March 1 and April 18.

According to ONS, hotspots within Oxford included Marston and Headington, while in the wider county, Abingdon was a hotspot.

The public health director added that there was a possibility of a second peak to the coronavirus pandemic, and said there had been predictions that this could come in August or September.

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He said: “There is a real risk we may have a second peak, and in most pandemics if you look at history there has been a second peak and the second peak has been the worst.”

But he said contact tracing of who had the virus was being put in place to stop levels peaking again.

The government is currently trialling a phone app on the Isle of Wight which will allow people to find out if they have been in close contact with someone displaying the symptoms of Covid-19.

If the trial is successful the app is set to be rolled out across the UK.

Oxfordshire, said Mr Azhar, had a rate of infection which was slightly higher than England a whole, possibly because of an ageing population.

According to the public health chief, the rate of infection for the county is 263 per 100,000 people whereas the England average is 250 per 100,000 people.

Members of Oxfordshire's Health Improvement Partnership Board at their first virtual public meeting

But he also added the daily number of infections in Oxfordshire was decreasing.

Quoting Wednesday’s latest figures for the county, he said: “As of yesterday we had just over 1,800 cases in Oxfordshire. We know the real number is higher than that. Those are confirmed cases.”

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The number of people who have tested positive for Covid-19 in Oxfordshire currently stands at 1,848 as of Thursday, according to Public Health England.

The Health Improvement Partnerships Board was also given an update on how local goals to improve public health had been affected by the pandemic.

During this update, Mr Azhar said he was concerned that fewer people had been visiting hospital for problems not related to coronavirus.

He said: “We know for non-Covid issues the number of people turning up to hospital has significantly gone down which has led to a spike in non-Covid deaths. This is concerning.”

The board’s goals include preventing people from taking up smoking, encouraging women to have smear tests and tackling childhood obesity.

In its latest performance report, which covers the first four months of 2020, Mr Azhar said the targets had not yet started to feel the full effects of the pandemic.

He added that the next report was likely to show that many of the schemes run by council staff and health workers to improve public health had been affected by it.

He added the board should think about which areas of public health it wanted to prioritise after the pandemic had passed.