THE effect that Brexit might have on tourism is perhaps one of the most difficult things for experts to judge.

For a start, if Britain votes to quit the European Union on Thursday it will all depend on what deals we strike with our neighbours afterwards.

Boris Johnson, a lead campaigner for Vote Leave, wrote in March: “It is vital to stress that there is nothing necessarily anti-European or xenophobic in wanting to vote Leave on June 23.”

Yet Prime Minister David Cameron has warned the cost of a family holiday could rise by £230, mainly because of assumptions that the pound would fall in value if we vote to leave.

Meanwhile, airlines have also said passengers could pay more because this depreciation would add to operating costs particularly fuel, which is purchased in dollars.

The good news for travellers, however, is that visas are unlikely to be a problem – Britain already has several agreements in place with countries as far flung as the United States and Japan which let its citizens visit for a certain period without having to get one. It is not unreasonable to expect something similar could be agreed with the EU.

However, Oxford City Council leader Bob Price warned the effect on tourism of Brexit might be much closer to home.

He said the city’s hospitality industry could “collapse” if many of the European nationals who currently work here were forced to leave or to go through the process of obtaining visas.

The Labour councillor added: “We employ so many EU nationals in our cafes, restaurants, bars and hotels that we could face a huge labour crisis if we left, and we do not yet know how it would be resolved. The concern would also be that although Oxford is always going to be an attractive place to visit, leaving means that ease of movement for people wanting to come here is made that little bit more difficult.

“That additional hassle might persuade someone to just go somewhere else.”

His concern about labour was echoed by Keith Slater, a director of the Oxfordshire Town Chamber Network.

Mr Slater said: “I don’t see leaving the EU having much of a detrimental effect on tourism numbers in Oxford, but it will depend what arrangements we end up with.

“But it is true to say there could be a problem with labour because there are a lot of people who come here to work shortterm.

“They do not necessarily want to stay for long, because they may be saving to put down a deposit for a flat or house back home.”

He added: “It depends, because if it becomes more expensive to visit here that could be bad.

“But if it becomes cheaper because of the pound going down in value you could actually see more tourists taking advantage.”

Anything that affects Oxfordshire’s tourism industry could have a major economic impact: according to the county tourism board Experience Oxfordshire, in 2014 there were 26.7 million visitors to Oxfordshire and they spent £1.86 billion in the local economy.

This supported an estimated 32,000 jobs.

FREEDOM OF MOVEMENT

FREEDOM of movement for workers is one of the founding principles of the EU.

This includes the rights of movement and residence for workers, the rights of entry and residence for family members, and the right to work in another member state and be treated on an equal footing with nationals of that member state.

Restrictions apply in some countries for citizens of member states that have recently acceded to the EU.

The rules on access to social benefits are currently shaped primarily by the case law of the Court of Justice.

In practice, leaving the EU is unlikely to affect our ability to travel to other countries for holidays.

But it could impact on how easy it is to go and work in other European countries, or how difficult it is for EU nationals to come and work, study and live here.

The outcome would depend on the kind of deal a future government could secure with the EU in the event of a Brexit vote.

TOURISM IN NUMBERS

ACCORDING to Experience Oxfordshire, in 2014 there were 26.7 million visitorsto Oxfordshire.

Of these, 24.1 million were day trips, an increase of one per cent on 2013.

Meanwhile 2.6 million were staying trips, including people from the UK and foreigners, which was an increase of two per cent on 2013.

These visitors spent £1.86 billion in the local economy overall, supporting more than 32,000 jobs.

The day visitors also spent £904m during their trip, an increase of one per cent on 2013.

It is estimated that 628,000 overnight trips were made to Oxfordshirein 2014 by visitors from outside the UK.

Compared to 2013, this was a three per cent increase.