Oxford residents prepare for the worst whenever they hear reports of heavy rainfall or hear flood alerts – even a few hours’ warning can avoid major damage to homes and property. Scientists based near Wallingford are working to provide better early warnings and help agencies respond to flooding. LUKE SPROULE reports
THE Centre for Ecology and Hydrology is leading the fight against flooding across Europe. It also helps with the design of flood defences, and the more the scientists’ research improves, the better Oxford will be protected from flooding.
Science area leader for natural hazard research, Dr Nick Reynard, said the work at the centre near Wallingford is vital to helping people in Oxford. He said: “We have spent a lot of time developing a method with which we can predict anywhere in the country which will be at risk from flooding in the next four days. We continue to develop that model. We are expanding to cover the next 100 years, we have to think what the science will do to stop people suffering and what we can do with nature to make sure Oxford is not flooded.”
The centre employs 350 staff and students who work on a range of areas including water resources, pollution and environmental risk and soil research.
But it is the research into natural hazards which has the biggest impact on people in Oxfordshire.
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Flooding, which is a major part of natural hazard research, is dangerous – but it is also damaging to the economy.
Scientists at the centre collect data from across the country which is then fed into a computer programme which can determine the likelihood of flooding.
By 2019 they hope to have a tool which will also forecast surface water flooding.
Dr Reynard said: “The first thing is data, rainfall data, what the land surface is like and so on.
“Then we analyse what the area’s reaction to rainfall and flooding will be like. Then we run it through a computer programme.”
Media relations manager at the centre, Dr Barnaby Smith, said: “There is an enormous amount of computing power and more is required.
“The chief scientist at the Met Office keeps calling for bigger computers and, as time moves on, the methods become more advanced.
“But we also try to do practical things that people on the ground are able to use.
“What we are getting much better at is condensing the information and reducing the amount of time and amount of warning, and we see how people can react.”
The warning system which the centre has developed alerts the Met Office and the emergency services to the risk of flooding.
People who live in areas which are expected to flood are then able to get out of their homes before waters rise, and police and fire services can prepare their response.
- Dr Nick Reynard
Dr Reynard said: “People get a warning on the phone to say their home or business will be flooded and that gives them time to prepare.”
Wallingford Town Council’s Stuart Darby, who has been involved in flooding issues for over 15 years, said data which outlines which areas are prone to flooding is extremely important.
He said: “The main thing in Wallingford is the River Thames and over the past few winters when we have had flooding the flood plain has been inundated.
“It demonstrates how fortunate we are that the flood plain hasn’t been developed for housing.”
He also agreed that the priority is not necessarily creating man-made flood defences.
He said: “For the Thames, it is a case of ensuring there are no blockages and that the river is maintained, particularly at road crossings.”
- People are rescued from the street by firefighters in July 2007
Oxfordshire is particularly likely to flood because the Thames, and its tributaries including the Cherwell, Ock, Windrush, Thame and Evenlode all flow through the county.
Dr Smith highlighted the experience of Oxfordshire, and other parts of England, in 2007, when all the rivers in the county burst their banks.
Within two days, 3,000 Oxfordshire homes were flooded and some residents had to take refuge in rooms at Oxford’s Kassam Stadium.
- Andy Webber clears water from his Earl Street home
Dr Smith said the systems Dr Reynard and his team have put in place meant the impact is unlikely to be so severe in future.
Dr Smith said: “Prior to 2007 a lot of the work we do was at a local level.
“One of the things that came out of the 2007 summer floods was this need for a consistent way of doing it across the country.
“The methods are also now better at doing it than they were even five or six years ago.
“They might only be an hour earlier, but that hour might be crucial to moving out of a house or moving furniture upstairs.”
For flooding victims, it may sometimes seem that nothing can be done to stop their homes and businesses being ruined by water. But scientists at the Centre for Ecology and Hydrology are also working on developing better defences to stop, or at least ease, the impact of flooding.
Dr Reynard said: “The issue of warnings and alerts – all of that is based on the science we have here.
“Without us forecasting a flood we wouldn’t be able to alert people to the risk of flooding.
“It also helps people with what they need to put in place to deal with the risks of flooding.
“We are working with policy-makers to let people understand what they need to consider to defend themselves against climate change and flooding. For example, if you want to build a wall how high does it need to be to stop the flooding?
“We don’t want people to think we are scientists up in our ivory towers here, we are doing work which will really benefit them.”
Hopes are also rising that work on a flood relief channel around Oxford could begin in two years’ time.
The Government gave £26m towards the ‘western conveyance channel scheme in July. The channel would be as wide as the River Thames and run from Seacourt Strem north of Botley Road to the Thames at Sandford Lock, diverting flood water away from Oxford.
An additional £38m of funding has come from the Environment Agency and £12m from the Thames Regional Flood and Coastal Committee.
The entire scheme is expected to cost about £125m.
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Paddle-board instructor and boatyard manager Tom Ballance suggested using the A34 as a flood barrier for Oxford.
- Tom Ballance
The idea was discounted, but he believes a smaller scale approach is needed to tackle flooding and is sceptical of the work of agencies such as the Centre for Ecology and Hydrology.
He said: “The problem with Oxford is that we basically have four rivers coming together all at one point so when we have a lot of rain in the Cotswolds it causes problems.
“There has always been a big problem with flooding here down the centuries but it was always managed very well.
“Each time new agencies have taken over, the focus on the river has been diluted.
“The big problem is that in years gone by there were people monitoring the river but the agencies want a big solution to a big problem.
“I think the farmers have a big part to play, farming general farmland to make sure it drains well.
“There is not enough money being spent on existing flood defence systems.”
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