At the beginning of the year we had a Labour Government and snow; at the end of it we have had a Coalition — and snow. So what else is new?
In the Oxfordshire political landscape, Labour tightened its grip in Oxford City at elections in May and in the districts Cherwell stayed red and West Oxfordshire blue, with elections not falling due at the county council or in the other districts.
But a huge change in mood has occurred between now and then. At the beginning of the year, in the wake of bank bail-outs, institutions dee-med “too big to fail,” and editorials in heavy broadsheets about The Future of Capitalism, many of us shivered in a work environment in which customers were all but absent.
Now economic confidence in Oxfordshire is on the up, with some business leaders giving a cautious sigh of relief and remarking: “Could have been so much worse.” Some even murmur that it looks almost as though world finance ministers did something right when they co-operated to increase money supply in order to re-prime the economy.
One such business watcher is Iain Nicholson, chief executive of the 1,700 member-strong Oxfordshire Town Chambers Network.
He told The Oxford Times: “Things are challenging but not as bad as many feared; and there is some optimism as we move into 2011.
“Business people across the county have worked really hard, taking costs out of their businesses while still keeping on staff — perhaps by introducing flexible employment schemes.
“And they have put great effort into promotions and into starting up new networks — such as womens’ business networks, for instance.”
But he warned that some of the wind might have been taken out of retailers’ sails by the pre-Christmas weather.
He added: “I think the length of time each change has taken, and the periods of uncertainty in between has been disturbing.
“There was the purdah period before the election. Then there was the time when we were left wondering what sort of government we would get, then the Spending Review. And things are still shaking out. For example, we don’t know yet what money councils will have for procurement.”
The three months to October saw dole queues lengthen nationally, thanks largely to people losing their jobs in the public sector. Now the question remains: can the private sector employ them instead?
Mr Nicholson said: “It is too early to say. But the mood is upbeat in Oxfordshire compared to a year ago. There are businesses that are almost in a position to start offering job opportunities.”
He added: “A recent survey found 23 per cent of new businesses are shops. That is great news for Oxfordshire towns. A year ago we were worried that there would be many more “for sale” and “to let” signs going up over shops.”
Another year gone also means another year closer to the time when Didcot A Power Station, must close — namely January 1, 2016, at the latest.
Lead times for building new power stations are generally about five years — ten years for nuclear. So are we now entering a critical period for the so-called energy gap.
In August, Richard Llewellyn, manager of RWE npower's stations A and B at Didcot, called for clarity from the Government. He is still waiting.
Most talk during the year was about when and where the public-spending cuts would bite. Paradoxically, in August, what may yet turn out to be the county’s last new library opened in Thame at a cost of £1.7m.
Culture minister Ed Vaizey, MP for Wantage and Didcot, saw libraries at the heart of the Coalition's 'Big Society' and wanted to see community-led changes. Did that mean replacing staff wth volunteers, I asked at the time?
He said: "There is no hidden agenda here. But if local communities would like to see their libraries open for longer hours, for example, why should not volunteers help out.
"We want to manage the move to a digital age and drive down costs, but I still think library buildings will be necessary in the future."
One of the victims of the cuts was Business Link. The organisation designed to support small and start-up businesses is now a pale shadow of itself after the spending cuts caused it to shut its Thame headquarters and now only one advisor is based in the county. Funding is only in place until next March.
The Strategic Defence and Security Review also threatened the future of RAF Benson and 100 jobs at Eurocopter based at Oxford Airport, which had landed a £300m contract to refurbish the Puma helicopter fleet. Fortunately they were spared the axe.
Oxfordshire also won the battle to have its own Local Enterprise Partnership replacing the South East England Development Agency (Seeda) by 2012.
It has been hailed as an opportunity for the public and private sectors to work together to shape the county’s own destiny. Expect more details in 2011.
House prices in Oxfordshire increased over the past year but on a low volume of sales — which, of course, is bad news for estate agents.
In August 2010, the latest month for which sales volume figures are available from the Land Registry, the average price of a home in Oxfordshire was £241,042 on a volume of 842 sales.
That compares with an average price of £220,600 in the same month in 2009 on a volume of 816 sales, and brings the price almost back up to the £242,304 August price tag of an average home in 2008 (on just 619 sales), or £247,856 before the credit crunch bit in 2007, (on a sales voluime of 1,450 — or more than double the 2008 volume).
But although businesses are reasonably bullish about the future, some analysts are less sanguine about how they perceive the economy.
Dr Jonathan Reynolds of Oxford University’s Institute of Retail Management at the Saïd Business School, said: “Perception is everything, and consumer confidence is down.
“There are more pessimists than optimists about and many people are postponing major purchases.”
He said that household spending fell £20 last year to £450 a week as people saved their money for possible rainy days ahead.
So we go into the new year with all to play for — and if you didn’t buy that expensive item because of the snow, remember: VAT goes up on January 4.
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