HERE is a conundrum. Everywhere you read of companies and individuals in financial trouble. Unemployment figures in Oxfordshire are growing at one of the fastest rates in the country — admitedly from a low base — but look around and everywhere people appear to be spending money.

Bicester Village for example, owned by Value Retail, which sells designer goods at discount prices, says trading is ahead of budget. And Aaron Bayliss, manager of the comparatively low-priced Templars Square shopping centre in Cowley, told The Oxford Times that the centre was doing better business as the economic downturn bites because it offers good value for money.

He said: “We have found that trade is actually increasing. But I don't think that would be the case if we sold luxury goods.

"Demand for fast food is increasing too, as many people are buying cheaper food to take home and eat in. It's luxury items that suffer first in a recession."

In Oxford city centre, too, money appears to be changing hands fast; though look carefully at the spenders and you will notice that many of the shoppers are mainland Europeans spending their euros — which have increased in value over the last year by 30 per cent.

If you are someone who still has a job — and a home, and not many debts — look in your own bank account and you will find more disposable money there than this time last year, thanks to mortgage rates having come down to historically low levels.

We asked financial experts about this mismatch between the facts we read about and those we observe with our own eyes. What measures would they like to see the chancellor introduce in next Wednesday’s Budget to stop Oxfordshire becoming an increasingly divided society, between haves and have nots?

It is hardly a state secret that the Government has very little money left in the kitty to give away — after bailing out banks — but at least £1bn has been earmarked to boost the job market with help for unemployment programmes. Nor is it a secret that precious little help will be offered to savers, who now receive lower rates of interest on their savings than at any time since the war.

Mr Bayliss would like some help in the Budget for those letting empty shop premises, with an increase in the ceiling for business rate rebate.

The big unknown for Oxfordshire, where the largest private employer is a car manufacturer (BMW), is if the Government will introduce a “scrappage” system to reward those replacing old cars with new ones.

Adam Slater, senior economist at forecaster Oxford Economics, said: “The Chancellor’s problem is that he has very little money to give away. The scrappage system has worked in Germany but been expensive — about five billion euros (£4.5bn). Here there may be a nod towards helping the car industry, but I don’t think the Government will offer the two thousand euros (or £1,775) the German government offers.”

He added that the chancellor’s room for manoeuvre was far more restricted now than was forecast at the time of the pre-Budget report in November, when the national deficit was £118bn, compared to nearly £150bn now.

And over at the Government-financed UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP) office, based in Oxford, director Chris West was sceptical about Government claims that a scrappage scheme was good for the environment. He said: “The greenest thing to do would probably be to pay people to give up their cars altogether.”

Back at Oxford Economics, Mr Slater said: “I think the Budget will contain one or two targeted and eye-catching measures, such as a give-away for the jobless, and another genuflection towards an efficiency drive in the public sector, because at the moment the private sector is shedding jobs but the public sector is not.

“But I don’t think there will be a lot else.”

More worryingly for the long-term economy of Oxfordshire, which depends heavily on public spending on education and research, Mr Slater added: “There will have to be a curb on public spending in the coming years. The Government has said that they will prioritise Education and Health but I wouldn’t want to stick my neck out on that.”

After all, if the Government does not curb spending on those two areas (and it must haul in money from somewhere after its recent borrowing spree), it will have to get it instead from such areas as defence or welfare — the last of which would risk uproar since the victims of the recession — people on benefit – will present the Government with an increasingly high bill as unemployment rises.

Mr Slater said fears about job security were making many people retrench in their personal spending, though he added: “It’s fair to say that consumer spending has not slowed down as dramatically as some feared.”

But will there be help for people who receive historically low interest on savings and then see banks demanding more than 20 per cent on credit card debts?

Mr Slater said: “I don’t think there will be any action in that area.”