OXFORD would have two Liberal Democrat MPs if the last General Election had been held under the proposed new alternative voting system, a study has shown.

Experts have said neither Labour’s Andrew Smith or the Conservative’s Nicola Blackwood would have won Oxford East and Oxford West and Abingdon in May had the alternative vote (AV) system been used.

Next month residents will have their say on whether the UK should replace the first past the post voting system.

In contrast to Oxford, the four county seats of Witney, Banbury, Wantage and Henley would have all remained in Tory control, analysis suggests.

We asked lawyer and political theorist Angela Cummine to look at how a new system could affect the city, ahead of May 5’s referendum.

She said: “There has been some modelling on this and both the Oxford West and Oxford East would have gone Lib Dem under the AV system in 2010.

“Interestingly, the majority of second preferences of both Conservative and Labour voters would go to the Lib Dems.”

Ms Cummine said redistributing these votes in each constituency would have delivered victory for the Lib Dems.

She explained: “Neither Andrew Smith nor Nicola Blackwood won more than 50 per cent of the vote on first preferences.

“So, if people prefer that a candidate be elected with more overall support and accountability, the Lib Dem candidate would have been the preferred choice of more voters in both seats.”

The Liberal Democrats are pushing for AV on the national stage and the referendum was a concession the party won by joining the Conservatives in a coalition government.

Analysis of the 2010 election result, carried out by academics at Essex University, shows the Liberal Democrats would have been the big winners under an AV system.

They would have gained 89 seats up, from 57.

Labour would have lost 10 seats and the Conservatives would have lost 24.

In total, 43 constituencies out of 630 would have returned a different result under the AV system, including the two Oxford seats.

The Conservative Party is campaigning to retain the current system and although Labour leader Ed Miliband favours reform, the Labour Party appears divided.

Ms Cummine, who is completing a PhD at New College, Oxford, said: “As for AV being more likely to produce Coalition governments than first past the post, that is a myth.

“If we look at Canada for instance, where like Britain they use first past the post in their House of Representatives, they have frequently resulted in minority governments.

“So there is no guarantee that your FPTP system will produce a clear outright winner, as became evident in Britain last May.”

But Ms Cummine believed it was difficult to predict which system would win on May 5.

“It is very hard to read,” she said. If the national appetite for change has been sated by the (forming of a) coalition government then we might not see an appetite for AV.”

  • Constituency picture

Oxford East: 2010 result: Labour win; 2010 AV prediction: Lib Dem win

Ms Cummine said: “UKIP voters would have a second preference of Conservative, bumping up the Conservative vote.

“Greens would more likely second preference Liberal Democrat. If Oxford follows national trend then the Conservative second preference would go to Lib Dems and would have declared Lib Dem candidate Steve Goddard the winner.”

Andrew Smith’s view of AV: “I have not yet decided how to vote on AV.

“My worry about alternative vote is that a candidate can get the most first preferences and the most second preferences, and yet still lose, which is a bit bizarre.

“It also gives more weight to the votes of people whose first preference is for the least popular candidate.”

Oxford West and Abingdon: 2010 result: Conservative win; 2010 AV prediction: Lib Dem win.

Ms Cummine said: “The Labour second preference would be key here. It’s more obvious to people that Labour voters would have put Lib Dem as second preference.

“It would have been enough, even if UKIP votes had all gone to the Conservatives. It is easy to see how the Lib Dems would have won this under AV.”

Nicola Blackwood’s view of AV: “I recognise concerns about first past the post, but I also recognise it has worked well for a great many years and we should act cautiously. I am unsure if the alternative vote will be any more representative than the current system, it would cost more than £250m, and it is worrying that there are only three other countries in the world which use it – Australia, Papua New Guinea, and Fiji.”

  • How the Alternative Vote system works

Under the present first past the post system, people vote for a single candidate and the candidate with the most votes wins – even if less than half of voters wanted that candidate.

Using the alternative vote system (AV), voters rank candidates in order of preference, placing a 1, 2, 3 etc. against names on the ballot paper.

All the first preference votes (the 1s) are then counted.

If one candidate secures more than 50 per cent of the votes, then he or she is declared the winner.

If not, the candidate with the fewest votes is eliminated and his/her votes are redistributed according to the second preference of each voter.

There is a recount and this process is repeated until one candidate secures more than 50 per cent of the votes.

  • For more details of the campaigns for and against the Alternative Vote, click on the links below.